Geomagnetic Activity

The enhanced geomagnetic activity and especially the geomagnetic storms often lead to substantial ionospheric plasma fluctuations/disturbances among many other space weather effects. From this perspective it is essential to develop services that can promptly evaluate the current level of geomagnetic activity and to estimate in advance the activity index.

For the purpose, a new empirical model has been developed (Kutiev et al., 2009) for use in the nowcast and forecast of a proxy to the traditional K index. This model utilizes both space-based observations (of the solar wind) and local ground-based measurements (of the geomagnetic field); hence, it is referred to as the Hybrid K model and was originally developed for the RMI Geophysical Centre at Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E). Preliminary tests showed that the model’s error for the nowcast is around 0.38 KU (K unit) and the error for one hour-ahead prediction is approximately 0.58 KU.

Kutiev I., Muhtarov P., Andonov B., Warnant R. (2009): Hybrid model for nowcasting and forecasting the K index. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 71, pp. 589-596.